Robmoss2k comment with stats I think deserved an article
Robmoss2k comment backed by stats deserved to be read as an artile to comment on. Enjoy…
Are we a striker graveyard?
Well, I’ve had a look, and I’d have to suggest that the answer is a resounding yes.
I’ve had a look at all the players from the past 15 years who Wikipedia says is a striker, who’ve played at least 10 league games for Bolton. I’ve only taken league games into account. Players with a better scoring record at Bolton than in comparison with the rest of their career, the numbers are their goals per game ratio first for Bolton and then over their whole career:
N’Gog 0.17 0.14, SKD 0.21 0.19, Sturridge 0.67 0.34, Anelka 0.4 0.31, Diouf 0.18 0.14, Ricketts 0.38 0.22, Guðjohnsen 0.32 0.24.
And now the players who have a worse record at Bolton:
Afobe 0.13 0.13, Sordell 0.16 0.25, Craig Davies 0.2 0.26, Klasnić 0.26 0.3, Tuncay 0 0.33, Elmander 0.2 0.26, Vaz Tê 0.05 0.19, Smolarek 0 0.14, Pedersen 0.15 0.29, Borgetti 0.11 0.52, Ferdinand 0.08 0.42, Facey 0.1 0.17, Holdsworth 0.25 0.31, Hansen 0.16 0.25, Bobic 0.27 0.52, Wallace 0.16 0.32, Marshall 0.16 0.23, Bob Taylor 0.27 0.34.
Taking everything into account, these strikers have 2493 goals in 8492 games between them, but only 356 in 1684 for Bolton – making our average 0.21 and their overall average 0.29. We turn strikers who score a goal every 3.44 games into strikers who score a goal every 4.76 games. Do they suddenly become worse players when they arrive at Bolton? Or is it because no matter how good a striker is, they can’t survive without a decent level of service?
The way our creative spark was absent on Saturday, you could have put Messi, Ronaldo and Van Persie up front for us and we still wouldn’t have scored. There’s no point crossing the ball into the box when you have a small striker (Beckford) and someone who can’t head it (N’Gog). The ball has to be played along the floor in behind the defence for Beckford, and N’Gog’s only strength at this level seems to be his ability to run through a crowd of players, although he’s yet to learn that he has to pass or shoot after the run.
I’m still not concerned as yet, and nor will I be until the transfer window closes. We don’t need strikers, we have plenty of those. For all the Beckford-haters out there, over the course of his career he averages 0.43 goals per game or a goal every 2.33 games. That’s better than any other striker we’ve had apart from Borgetti and Bobic.
Okay, he’s not done so great for us, but you can’t knock what he’s done in the past really when you compare him to everyone else we’ve had. Even the much-vaunted Anelka only scored once every 3.23 games and once every 2.53 games for us.
So when you have a go at our strikers, remember – over the course of the past 15 years, our style of play has stifled some really good goalscorers, be it the style adopted by Allardyce, Lee, Megson, Coyle or Freedman. The only player we’ve had in the last 15 years who’s sustained 20-goals-a-season-level over the course of their time at Bolton is Sturridge, who would have scored 30.67 goals in a 46-game season at the rate he was scoring for us.
Anelka’s rate would have left him on 18.4 goals over the same period. Hall, O’Halloran, Eaves and Odelusi all have just as many league goals for Bolton as Beckford, but Beckford has the past record to back up his claim for a place in the side. Sordell has 4 goals in 25 games for us – rubbish. Worse than Craig Davies on 4 in 20, which is still rubbish. Worse than N’Gog too on 11 in 66 – still not good.
So how can anyone possibly lose hope after FOUR GAMES that Beckford might turn out to be a decent goalscorer? We sure as hell don’t have any others. And given that we don’t have any others, and haven’t had for a long time, we need to defend. Properly – not like on Saturday.
And just to clear up the bit that doesn’t make sense in there – when I say we don’t need any more strikers as we have enough, what I mean is that unless we can get rid of some first we shouldn’t be going getting extras. Replacements okay, but not additional numbers. I wouldn’t complain if we signed Rhodes. I also wouldn’t complain if we signed Messi. I also know that we can’t compete financially at that level and as such if we’re going to do anything in this league it has to be the cheaper way – good defence and good organisation. Sign Dawson instead.